Originally Posted by
SATTSO
That is a valid question, but I do not think so. From what I have heard and understand, those who qualify for less intrusive screening will be selected on a more tangible criteria, such as criminal history and so on. And some of the reduced screen will simply apply to everyone, even those not in the Trusted Traveler program.
Why is criminal history a tangible risk criteria? To be a valid criteria, a positive correlation must exist between criminal history and attempts to take WEI onboard aircraft (note: this is a frequentist's argument). I doubt such a correlation can be demonstrated. The reports I've read are almost all focused on simple forgetfullness by people without a criminal history. Moreover, the attempts by those with criminal histories must be to small for a correlation to be proven.
If no correlation is proven, then the risk-based screening is simply another name for profiling.
Correlation is but one of many issues with "risk based screening". Many of the others are grouped under the heading of uncorrected bias -- the same bias that gets someone added to secret lists.
And that brings up another issue -- to what extent is "risk based screening" driven by one or more secret lists?