I have a YVR-HKG-YVR flight booked that I upgraded to J but I've been waitlisted for the upgrade.

As this is my first time using points for an upgrade, I was just wondering what my chances of getting the upgrade are and does CX 'release' more seats for points upgrades as it gets closes to the date?

Also, I have the upgrade for both inbound and outbound flights, but I'm only waitlisted for the outbound flight. If I don't get that, will this also cancel the inbound upgrade?