Here’s where I think the Manistee growth came from:

--People who normally would have flown out of TVC, MKG, GRR or FNT
--People who normally would have driven and not flown
--People who would not have taken a trip but decided to based on the low fares

Those last two items are true traffic stimulation, and I believe Frontier's presence and low fares are the trigger. What I don't know is if that stimulation was repsonsible for 15% of the growth of 75% of the growth.

Why did Pellston and Traverse City also see traffic increases? Well, I don’t think that airlines in TVC matched Frontier fares, and PLN is a 2-3 hour drive away from MBL and I doubt they saw lower fares, either. I’d guess that the whole pie in N/NW lower Michigan is growing based on the economic recovery.

Manistee’s growth, however, is not primarily based on the improved MBL economy, but on retaining local traffic and stimulating local demand with fares.

I wouldn’t expect TVC to match Frontier introductory fares out of MBL for new service, because the airlines in TVC didn’t know having good Manistee service would affect their traffic. Even if a lot of MBL passengers normally used TVC, that TVC’s total traffic was up nicely suggests they are not feeling the heat from Frontier, and that they’ll keep their fares high. That can only help Frontier in Manistee.