moondog

In the past, I've often argued that there is basically no point for China based expats to get in bed with local FFPs because:

1) the mileage expiration policies tend to suck
2) it is really hard to amass big balances unless you fly a ton... no cool credit card games or 600% bonuses
3) there were good overseas *A (UA, BD, AC) and ST (KL, NW, and even DL) programs

However, the game is different now, at least in the case of Skyteam. As you note, DL is simply terrible these days and Flying Blue is almost as bad. Star Alliance is still pretty good (I will continue to throw everything I can into my BMI account as long Diamond Club remains, and Aeroplan is now a great program). Star Alliance works well for Beijing people, but not so well for Shanghai people any more, in light of FM's departure from the alliance... I firmly believe that part of the reason behind FM's switch was a desire on the part of CA to expand in Shanghai on its own; they have been building up their presence there at a pretty impressive rate.

That having been said, Shanghai residents invariably have to fly MU/FM a solid chunk of the time. It's not like the case in the USA, where, for example, Los Angeles residents can theoretically garner VIP treatment on DL by choosing to route many of their trips through Salt Lake City. If you want to fly from Shanghai to Xi'an on CA, you need to buy two separate tickets, one from Shanghai to Beijing and a second from Beijing to Xi'an. Apart from the cost issue, this would double your chances of being delayed a significant amount of time and be generally unpleasant.

In essence, those that don't live in a strong CA market no longer have any good foreign FFP options, so I will now concede that it makes sense for these folks to bite the bullet and focus on a local program (while continuing to accrue gobs of credit card miles to AA, BA, AS, UA, etc and jumping on good promos like cheap US miles).

The good news is, that in the current environment, Chinese FFPs are now somewhat more attractive. While mileage expiration remains annoying, there are numerous low priced awards (e.g. flights less than 600 km cost almost nothing), and it's possible to prevent miles from expiring as long as you don't set your sites too high (i.e. think weekend trip to DLC instead of SYD).

Ctrip's credit card acceptance policies change more frequently (like 10x as often) than any other company that I have ever done business with, but it's nice to know that this Amex promo is the "flavor of the day".