Originally Posted by
cordelli
United elites don't have an 80% chance of getting into first, that's way too high of a figure. The main benefit of a first class ticket is you get a first class seat. Most of the rest can either be purchased for a fee way less than first class costs, or people have for their status. I don't think anybody is paying thousands of dollars more for a first class seat just to save the $50 fee to check a bag.
Do you really disagree with my general premise?
Flying on any advertised fare, as a top level elite, considering that on some trips you will be able to plan ahead, some trips you will be connecting, some trips will be last minute and you'll be forced to buy full fare, and considering your confirmed upgrade vouchers and SWUs, you have a decent enough chance of getting into first class overall. I don't know what the exact percent chance is and I think that it would vary a lot depending on the person's travel habits, but for the average 1K with the average 1K flying habits, I think it would be high overall.
Also to your exact point, I was just looking at my current United flight reservation and they were offering to upgrade my award ticket to first with all the benefits for $150 each way.
I'm not saying that airlines should extend these benefits to elites for charity, I'm saying that I believe that airlines could make more money overall if they did because it is extremely rare that the airline sells out their first class cabin, it usually ends up giving away many (most?) of the seats as free upgrades, and to a person who already has a good-to-great chance of getting that aforementioned free upgrade, paying 4 times as much for a 1st class seat, the same price that someone who rarely flies would pay makes zero sense.
And if there is a good reason why airlines wouldnt make more by selling discount first class seats to top level frequent flyers, please post it. I haven't seen it so far.