Originally Posted by
6rugrats
Welcome to FT!
A 1K does not get free lounge access on a domestic flight. When I was a 1K last year, I was never willing to pay for F seats. I am not sure where you come up " ..an ~80% chance of getting a free upgrade to 1st". Where did you get these numbers? Your chances of being upgraded depend on your fare class, routing, time of check in, etc.
I know last year, on elite heavy routes, I did not receive UDU ~80% of the time. YMMV.
All true but you get discounted lounge membership and my 80% number was just a relatively conservative one that I'd seen as an average overall for a "typical" mix of business and personal flying for a 1K or equivalent frequent flyer. Obviously if you are flying to a business-centric destination during typical business flying times from a hub, you will have less of a chance, but my understanding is that overall 80% is a decent estimate, especially after you include any confirmed upgrades that you may earn. Some people's flying habits might give them a higher or lower average.