I agree with points 1 & 2. Loads are down on AC period and many people have given up on AC AE program.

However, on point 3 I find it hard to believe for a few reasons.

1.) The program isn't that hard to use and very clear instructions were included in the packages. Assuming that the average frequent flyer is relatively bright I'm sure most were able to figure it out.

2.) You can still upgrade by calling in and the numbers are still on the card. While they prefer that you do it yourself the AC SE desk upgrades me on a regular basis when I'm not near my computer / internet.

3.) Traveller's have had a long time (4 months) to prepare for eupgrades -- it's not as though its a surprise.

4.) The overall impact to # of upgrades (at least on the routes that I fly) has been too visible to be from what I would call spurious factors (e.g., people don't know how to use the upgrades) and is more likely attributable to factors like fewer people are applying for upgrades because of credit conservation. For instance, YYZ-BOS went from 100% full J on nearly every flight I took for the last three months of the year to on average 4-5/9 seats filled on the past 6 flights that I've taken. I fly this route on AC 366,368,367,369 at least 8-10 times per month and pre-eupgrade it was nearly always full. Post-upgrade it has been consistently empty (little competition for upgrades, period).

My point here is simply that I suspect if we polled members of the program they are conserving upgrades for the higher value flights (or hoarding them as they determine how they can utilize upgrades). Hoarding behaviour is likely part of the problem as people have more upgrade options and are working through how best to maximize their person value from eupgrades.