Add me to the list of people who never would have asked. Then again, other airlines tend to proactively tell you... "I'm afraid it's not looking so good for the upgrade Mr. 11, but they'll let you know at the gate if you get very lucky." "I'm afraid your upgrade won't be clearing, in fact we're having to do downgrades tonight."

Really glad I read this thread, since I'll probably become an EXP soon and would have botched this up. ^