A good read from idriveuride on the EK thread.

Absolute Brilliance

I recall a while back there was a promotion regarding the 380 and Lufthansa I believe. The gist of it was write a warm and fuzzy about the 380 and the future of aviation in general.

Well, I did not write the warm and fuzzy which was expected; but, instead discussed the future of the A380 and global aviation IMO.

I offered that surviving global carriers will begin to depend heavily on the 380 (and larger), reduced frequencies and multi-modal transportation links as the price of fuel shrinks routes and frequencies. Even so far as to suggest that carriers would be folded into (or grow toward) a network of services which would include: freight, rail, air and beyond.

I think the Emirates A380 order and future projections are absolutely brilliant! In large part Emirates does not have the pressure of frequency demands and can focus on density. Carriers such as Cathay, Singapore, Emirates, Etihad, South African, LAN and AF/KL/LH uniquely positioned to succeed into the next decade.

Cathay, Singapore, Emirates & Etihad: Focus of density versus frequency
LAN: The restrictive geography to alternate travel
AF/KL & LH: Excellent networks & rail connections of Europe
South African (merged with Kenya Airways) Essentially, all of the above.
Russian carrier: All of the abover as well

US Carriers will be hard pressed to independently survive the coming reality of $150, $175 or $200 barrel fuel price, resulting in slashing of frequencies, routes, fleets and a wave of further consolidation. Reduced frequencies will be balanced with greater density and shorter routes would be eliminated in favor of rail or other affordable/sustainable means. Surviving hubs will be those able to accommodate: strong local demand and Intercontinental travel combined with multi-modal links.

Talk about how history being cyclic, the surviving US carrier(s) of the future will resemble TWA, PanAM and Braniff with outstanding International networks and solid trans-continental routes. The reason (in-part) they died (lack of strong domestic network) will flip to become the reason for success as all but longer domestic routes will shrink.

Not a doomsday scenario, simply my opinion that fuel is a limited resource which is deteriorating in terms of accessibility and cost. The curve of sustainable alternatives is not pacing demand.

Just imagine the strength of DL, AA or CO/UA should one or the other purchase the Amtrak Northwest Corridor service; or, AA, CO/UA purchasing the Midwest network out of Chicago. It would put a lock on the market when fuel prices begin to demand eliminating routes under 250 miles. Or the merger of a global air carrier with FedEx or UPS.

Regardless of viability . . . density will begin to trump frequency . . . Emirates being on the front end of the curve and locking up deliveries through 2018.