for the fares eligible for upgrade with the blue cert (M/U) you're almost paying the price of an executive first lowest fare

but i would say all 3 won't be too hard, it's not that hard to upgrade YVR-HKG, it's much easier compared to YYZ-HKG

if you still haven't booked yet, it might be already T-4 by the time you book since those certs are wallpaper by the end of the month