Another data point:
No previous Citi AA cards (or any Citi cards)
Personal MC 30k/? approved July 2010,
Personal Amex 75k/1500 denied Oct 2010 (already cardholder denial),
Business Visa 75k/1500 approved Oct 2010,
Personal Visa 75k/4000 denied Feb 2011 (already cardholder denial)
Giving up on the 75k personal offers, thought that the 4k offer might give me a better chance.