FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - "Random and Everywhere"
View Single Post
Old Jan 30, 2011 | 10:49 am
  #18  
Flaflyer
FlyerTalk Evangelist
10 Countries Visited15 Years on Site
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: The Sunshine State
Programs: Deltaworst Peon Level, TSA "Layer 21 Club", NW WP RIP
Posts: 11,372
Originally Posted by FetePerfection
My bet is this "Random & Everywhere" exercise is DHS/TSA being proactive for once. Their justification is in response to the suicide bomber in Russia, checking everyone regardless...
bolding mine. Except for one problem, they are not checking everyone, just a few at random. This is a waste of resources and doomed to failure.

Hijack and plane crash statistics do not support it, but assume for argument (and TSA who loves to say "There are terryrists everywhere probing the system") that Every Day ONE 9/11 type bad guy tries to board a domestic US flight. There is ONE hijacker in the 2 million folks who will transit a TSA Clerkpoint, where all the sheeple are searched. Now imagine trying to find that ONE Bad Guy outside the Clerkpoint by Random searches.

Next week there will be 100,000 people at the Super Bowl. Imagine twenty Super Bowl stadiums full. Inside is ONE person carrying a billion dollar check which you can keep (The Big Prize) IF you walk up to that person and ask "Do you have my check?", the only restriction is that you can only ask 200 people at Random from those twenty football stadiums full. What are the odds of finding the check?

Now suppose you can play this game forever, however the people in the stadiums change every day so you cannot eliminate those you asked yesterday. Add the variability that some days there might be 10 people with checks but most days there will be none. How many years/decades/centuries are you likely to go and never catch the prize by Random searching of 200 folks a day?

Trying to find a one in a billion long shot by Random Searching is nothing but a huge waste of time. Taxpayer paid time in TSA's case.
Flaflyer is offline