Is there a price war going on within staralliance and Japan to China R/T tickets?

I am trying to find a fare w/in *A from Japan either NRT or KIX to SHA (any) or PEK out 7.4 in 13.4.2011

Direct flights are pricing in at a ridiculous 2K in Y and Indirect can go as low as 400.

Can anyone please shed some light. I have used KVS, ITA, as well as normal web sources.

Thanks for your help