Originally Posted by
FlyingNone
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But the list is "fluid", there is no guarantee even if you show as number one on the list that you will remain as such. Mr. GS decides to change to your flight at the last minute and he trumps you out - even while you are staring right at your name.
Also there may be passengers who have cleared a waitlist (from WL to KK or KL (confirmed) status) that are unaware of it and are informed as late as the time they are boarding (the gatereader will indicate this) and they'll be pleasantly surprised !
This is true, but at least you would get an idea. If you're #1 on the upgrade list, even with GS's etc bumping you out, you probably would end up in the top 5. If you were #20, you probably woudl not have a chance of getting upgrade. It's not accurate, but you get an idea.
The same hold true for the seatmap. It is not accurate, but I use it quite often to give myself an idea. I also look at the Z fare bucket for international business travel (trying to go from Y to C with SWU with W fare). If Z=9, and the seatmap is relatively empty, I know I have a reasonable shot. If the seatmap is 80% full and Z=0, I am probably hosed. It by no means is 100% accurate, but it at least gives you an idea.