At many major airports, there are LCR monitors at each gate and it will show you the upgrade list queue. John Smith will show up as SMI/J and it wil show the number of upgraders, number of seats, and the sorted queue (done by MP status, fare paid, and time added to waitlist).

There is a site that also helps track upgrades - www.udustats.com. You can sort out the data to see how others are doing on similar itineraries.