I suspect it really depends on CX's capacity decisions for 2012-2013, and to a lesser extent their decisions regarding the A340s. If CX isn't too aggressive in their capacity expansion, by my math at least some of the mix of A340s/74As need to be removed from passenger service by early 2012. I'm not in the industry so I don't know exactly how they do that....piece by piece, silently and we won't really notice? Or announce a departure of a bunch of them at once? ...I guess it depends on what the market for aircraft are like next year and in 2012.

I think this because the additional 18 777s arriving from Boeing here onwards will be a relatively close match for the 21 passenger 747s they have flying today, so as those 777s keep arriving either CX's (mainly long-haul) passenger capacity is going to have to increase at an equal pace to the 777 arrivals or something is going to have to happen to at least SOME of the 74As/A340s.