Actually this is not true. Loyalty and past revenue is a fairly good projection marker for future revenue, assuming the terms of the game don't change. The more stable the program and the product, or the more *real* enhancements offered, the more accurate the projection marker.

Why do you think the UA people are fleeing for AA? Because they are 'fickle'? That's nonsense - only the 'organizer' of that movement is fickle (someone who has jumped across every Elite program in this country over the past few years without finding happiness), but he is taking a number of long-standing loyal customers along. Others are looking at Delta as an alternative.

Why? Because the terms of the game are changing. Based on the changes we've seen so far, we're not holding our breath for actual improvements, but net reductions to Elite benefits, and something tells me an act of borderline slaughter is around the corner, program-wise.

I've been a CO Plat and evangelist for 10 years - I hardly think that makes me fickle. Plenty of other folks here have been around a lot longer than that. That's what loyalty means - and that's why courting and keeping loyal customers is the hallmark of any product or service business no matter the industry.