Originally Posted by
hfly
"Leftover", "major global carriers" and "number of airlines" are all very subjective terms that have little to do with reality (as does the ridiculousness that ST "only" has one US carrier, all the alliances originally had only one US carrier, it was ST which changed the trend when it absorbed "Wings" , and considering that Delta ate NW, which was in fact bigger than about 35 of the worlds top 50 airlines at the time of the merger, ST has enough US coverage). I am top tir on TWO * carriers as well as top tier on 2 ST carriers, as well as 1 1world carrier, they all have their pluses and minuses, however carrier count is not a real metric, as airlines like Air Adria, Tyrolean, Aegean, and a few others really do not generate too many passengers. All the talk about "better" carriers is a bit of a joke as I count several of the 1world and * cariers which hae dsappeared over the years due to insolvency, but cannot remember any ST carriers doing the same. Furthermore with the exception of Continental and its minions leaving ST, I cannot recall many defections from ST, but do recall several from the other alliances. I would say overall that 1world has been and continues to be in the weakest position for a variety of reasons, and that these may accelerate in the medium term future.
I'd disagree that OW is in the weakest position. Contrary to some of the posts above, it's strength is that it works out of some of the world's most important hub cities. In fact, LHR, JFK, HKG, NRT & SYD alone is a pretty impressive set of global hubs to call your home.
ST has definitely improved, although the introduction of carriers such as GA is a little worrying. Indonesia might be a major future market, but the country still has a long way to go in respect to aviation safety (or even safety in general). Interesting country, but it's a long way from top of the pack neighbour Singapore, or even the up and coming giant of Malaysia.
Originally Posted by
hfly
1 World has lost Aer Lingus, and Canadian ( Canadian went bust and Air Canada picked up a few pieces, this was not some sort of merger), Swiss (which was a huge stillborn mess). And of course MExicana which has disappeared (again)
It should also be noted that 1w has lowered its standards substantially, one of the reasons Aer Lingus was forced to leave was because they would no longer operate a business cabin on s/h services, now 1w has gone out of its way to bring AB in, which is even more down market.
* lost Varig, Ansett, Mexicana, Shanghai Airlines. At least 6 * carriers are so small that it is a joke that they are listed as full members.
AB arguably provides a significantly better product in Y than either BA or AF, so your conclusions don't really hold water in respect to it's introduction into OW. In fact I think it suffers from many of the same successes such as DJ, which I am sure both ST and *A would love to have, and a far cry from the likes of Sleazyjet or Liarair.
LX also never joined OW, so I don't think you can chalk that one up. MX also was not in bad shape necessarily when it left *A. It just decided that it was not in it's interest to keep going down the *A path and cosying up to UA.
Finally in respect to CP, don't forget that AC also nearly went bust. Neither carrier was in particularly good shape, and it has only been in recent years that AC has started to look good again.
Originally Posted by hfly
And where exactly dd I use the word "DEFECTION", I believe my words were (with original typos, "hae dsappeared over the years due to insolvency". EI left, because they became a LCC, it is not that EI is changing, but rather that 1w through its welcome of AB has extremely lowered its standards. Swiss had in fact agreed to be a 1w member and for a bunch of reasons never enetered, much of this had to do with BA trying to "roll" them, considering the fact that they later did join *, that is a big diference(and I do recall 1w materials with Swiss on them at many airports for a short time). Canadian and Mexicana are two more examples of lost carriers. Again other than CO (and its controlled carrier Copa) leaving due to the purchase of NW by DL and CO's later purchase by UA, ST has never lost a carrier, and has only grown.
Again, I think you are forgetting a little recent history. CO left ST and switched to *A before the UA merger. CO's leaving may have been related to the 'golden share', but it had nothing to do with a merger which at the time had not been inked.
Also CO no longer controls Copa. In fact I don't believe it owns any shares anymore, and has not done for getting towards 3 years. In the latter years it actually had a pretty small shareholding. The only thing tying the two together is really OnePass.
EI is a very poor cousin to AB. Comparing the two is pretty unfair.