Originally Posted by
newsmanhoss
What kind of loads is WN getting for MDW-LGA these days, and I wonder how much is connecting? Just wondering if, based on these numbers, if there's even a glimmer of hope that WN would keep MKE-LGA. I'm guessing the winter loads make it a non-starter for them.
LaGuardia is definitely the strongest of the eastern markets in traffic and local-to-connections ratio. Here are MKE-BOS/LGA/DCA for AirTran compared to MDW-BOS/LGA/BWI for Southwest from Q2, the most recent stats I see:
Boston
45.1% FL local traffic
59.2% WN local traffic
$126.48 average FL fare
$153.08 average WN fare
New York
59.5% FL local traffic
57.4% WN local traffic
$117.65 average fare on FL
$152.27 average fare on WN
Washington/Baltimore
44.9% FL local traffic
64.3% WN local traffic
$127.66 FL local fare
$159.93 WN local fare
Recall that recently AirTran spoke out how MKE yields were showing large increases year over year? That's true for BOS and DCA, but not so much
BOS Q2 AirTran fare
2009 $97.38
2010 $126.48
+29.9%
LGA Q2 AirTran fare
2009 $113.27
2010 $117.65
+3.9%
DCA AirTran fare
2009 $103.47
2010 $127.66
+23.4%
It seems that at BOS and DCA they didn't press fare as heavily and saw a nice average rise, but relied more on connections. At LGA they grew local passengers but fare barely budged year-over-year.
The fare gap between FL and WN may be somewhat smaller than this since many FL customers pay for bags, some for seat assignment, and some for business class upgrades. Still, in Q2 this "other" revenue per passenger was $10.17, which doesn't come close to bridging the gap. And when Southwest takes over and stops charging for bags and seat assignments (and has no more business class to sell) that won't make MKE results any stronger.
It's certainly possible Southwest could keep some coveted LGA slots for MKE service. Depends on what their plans are and how they view things. They are getting a MKE operation from AirTran which does serve quite a bit of local traffic, and could see that share as something to work to retain.
Or they might look at it this way: Forget AirTran for the moment...if Southwest got slots for 10 more departures at LGA they might be eager to add something like this:
3 new STL
2 new MCO
2 new BNA
1 new DEN
2 more MDW
Okay, now merge the AirTran system into the Southwest network and look at the whole. Is Milwaukee more profitable, more important to the network, more filled with long-term potential, and more unique-connection-enabling than those markets? If they look at the LGA slots in tht way, flights to IND, CAK, PHF, and MKE are not going to last.