Regarding the sample size, you made an erroneous assumption. The sample size is about 40 in 20 years. 39 times I got the seats I wanted, on the dates I wanted, often on the flights I wanted (including LAX-SYD for 4). 1 time, six months in advance, on flights which are presently wide open (I understand yield management - but the other 39 times the flights were *not* wide open, and they included real holidays, not just "a Sunday in July").