Kevin
The jump in mega pixels from the 40 to the 50 is pretty significant, but also a jump in DIGIC one generation newer, and the noise processing is better. the 50D refurb would be a good choice if you didnt want to jump to the 7D
What would you replace your 17-40 with? For the price point that is one amazing piece of glass and is my go to wide angle lens
Personally i have a 5DmkII (2nd one coming) and a 50D that i shoot with and quarterly i put 10-15K images on each body between shooting in the studio or out at events or sports. I got the 50D to upgrade from the 20D (the 30/40D wasnt much of a upgrade to be worth it) as the 7mp jump was good as well as the 2 generation jump of DIGIC processing. I'm happy with my current set up and the output from the files is amazing to the point the 35mm gear is gone and only the medium format gear remains since it can use digital backs as well as film. Now with the 2nd mkII coming im thinking of sending the 50D to Lifepixel for a infared conversion so that i can start doing more infared work as IR film price is insane (I like it because some of my best selling prints are IR slides i had prints done from the scans) and cost prohibative so i fake it in post.
If down the road i needed another body I would consider the 7D or its replacement as it has the X0D series build with some features of the 5 and 1 series bodies. I had hoped that Canon wouldnt have gone the rebel route like it did for the 60D as the build quality is very disappointing. Beyond that the switch to SD cards only is a non-starter for me since i have a very big investment in CF Cards (2 32GB, 6 16GB, 8 8GB, and probably 30+ 4GB and lower cards) and to switch over like that for one camera would be considerable. Would rather spend that money on better glass.
Personally the HD wasnt something i even thought about when i bought my mkII, but over time i have found myself using the HD video feature more and more, and is the reason im getting the second mkII body. My clients are liking the videos that im capturing that are incorporating in to there slide shows from the event. Only problem this is causing is that i now need to update my video editing software as the copy of premier i have predates CS1. The HD content is opening up to me new revenue outlets that have paid for the 2nd markII and will shortly pay for the accessories for the body to do video capture (and back up stills) and capture near BBC submission quality footage and has even been used on several american tv shows to film episodes (Final episode of last seasons House was shot on a 5DmkII).
here is a link to the video that was shot off the 5DmkII and 7D for the release of the new Canon 8-15 F4L Fisheye lens
http://web.canon.jp/imaging/ef/sampl...ovie.html?high
something to think of.