I just changed a flight into this market, for a similar fare to my regular route EWR SFO.

I know my schedule way out, and watch fares. I bought two EWR SFO trips in Jan/Feb 2011, thinking $340 was as low as the new regime would go, after being burned by waiting too long on some Nov/Dec 2010 flights. They happen to today be selling for $260, so in this instance I would have done better by waiting. But my next unpurchased flight, in late Feb, has to my knowledge never sold for less than $494. The sale waves have yet to reach those shores.

If one can't reliable watch like a hawk, then sign up for lots of competitor emails. I tend to notice a CO sale, for instance, around the time Virgin America is touting sale prices by email.

(The only drag with this strategy, if it works, is being the low fare on the plane, wait-listing miles for an upgrade. I've now been told a dozen times that fare class trumps elite status, for battlefield upgrades that waitlist miles. I recently sat in coach on a redeye, 18 back when 17 cleared. I'm waiting for a mod to ask once, so we can fix the FAQ.)