Murphy's Law. If something can go wrong, it will.
People check computers without mishap all the time. When you REALLY need the computer at the end of the trip for some REALLY important reason, that will be the one time in one hundred it goes missing.
I would no more put my computer in checked luggage then fly to the moon. If I was unwilling to carry it on, I'd send it by trackable air freight: FedEx, DHL or UPS.