FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Distressing (Sad) Call to AA Overheard at ORD AC
Old Jun 11, 2003 | 10:39 am
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GadgetFreak
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<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by SEA_Tigger:
If it costs me $100,000 to fly a 777 - I need an average of 100 $1000 seats. If I can only sell those 100 seats for an average of $500, I'm gonna get financially clubbed like a harp seal unless I can get my costs down to $50,000.</font>
That is exactly what is happening NOW. Only about 10% of people pay full fare. I expect that will decrease rather than increase over the long runs. It isnt like the current model is remotely close to working. The question is would they generate more revenue by selling more tickets at a lower cost. My sense is they would, but no one will know until someone tries. Well, maybe they have tried, look at ATA, JetBlue, Virgin and others. None are perfect examples but interesting ones. I think many people, certainly me, would pay a premium for a flexible ticket but not the kind of prices that Y often goes for. I think also, the Y fares probably result in a lot of people going to the discount carriers because they dont realize the degree of choice they have now. If they had more choice in the future they would be more likely to chose a major. Perhaps a much better example of pricing is hotels. Lots of people chose hotels like Hyatt and Intercontinental. But if you talk about rooms (not large suites) I think the proce differential between say a Holiday Inn and an Intercontinental is something on the order of 1.5-2.5 times depending on the market, exact property etc. That is probably less than half of the difference between a refundable and non-refundable fare in many markets. People will decide to pay 2 times the price to stay in a nicer hotel or get a more flexible ticket. I think the current situation is proof that they wont pay 5 or 6 times more frequently enough for the majors to survive.
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