Your assumption is most likely right although things can always change at a moment's notice. Given this is an elite heavy route, I would start checking at the GS and 1K UDU hours of 120 and 100 respectively if you want any hope of moving up. Your other issue would likely be getting two seats together. If two people on the same itin get upgraded who were sitting together you might make out otherwise the open seats might be single and random???? Not sure you want to be separate with a lap child. I know I would not (unless of course Mrs. BBFD was holding him/her then it might not be bad ).