Flying today in NF/NC with SWU on a $1100 SMF-AMS-IAD ticket. Upgrade cleared 6 days ago. Stilling waitlisted for AMS-IAD return on 15Sep10.
Earlier experiences this year: several Asian trips: SFO-ICN-NRT-SFO, and SFO-NRT-SFO all cleared to NC at the last minute. This was better than expected because on the SFO-NRT route there are few upgrades. Recently (not sure when) UA resumed two RT flights each day so that may be easing. I have never missed an upgrade in or out of ICN or HKG.