Skip the math. The odds of being in an airplane accident, being injured as a bystander of an airplane accident or winning a lottery jackpot are so vanishingly small that there is minimal risk of the event happening. Thus all these events are cheap events to insure against. Having spent a good portion of my life calculating probabilities of improbable events for business purposes I understand, I think, that very unlikely is not good enough if you're designing an airplane, say, or running a casino. You, in those situations, want to be very precise so you can evaluate your risks in a multitude of events. Then mecabq calculations are necessary.

Otherwise why worry? You're far more likely to fall and die in a shower than in a plane. mecabq's calculations, adjusted to consider decreased risk due to the impact of improved experience, can prove that these assertions are true.