FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - What are the chances of dying in a plane crash in your lifetime of flying?
Old Jul 28, 2010 | 9:22 am
  #41  
mecabq
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Originally Posted by pinworm
The odds reset each time you board the plane, the flying you did before has nothing to do with the flying this time. If it's one in ten thousand, it's one in ten thousand EACH time.
The OP's premise is that it's one in ten million EACH time, but about one in ten thousand that you will be in a plane crash once in your lifetime if you fly 1,000 times. As I said in a previous post, even though each trial is independent, the cumulative probability is relevant if you are looking at the likelihood of being in a plane crash over a lifetime.

Just like the calculation that if there is a lottery whose odds of winning are one in ten million, then someone who buys one ticket per week for 20 years (i.e., 1,000 trials) faces about a one-in-ten-thousand probability of winning the lottery at least once in his life.

I always found it fascinating that the limit of infinite-trials-of-infinitesimally-small-probability-events -- or the limit of the probability of at least one success over N trials, with probability of success in each individual trial of 1/N, as N approaches infinity, is about 63%, or one minus the inverse of the natural exponent e.
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