FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - What are the chances of dying in a plane crash in your lifetime of flying?
Old Jul 23, 2010 | 1:18 pm
  #33  
zlc
15 Years on Site
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: SEA
Posts: 398
Originally Posted by mecabq
In each of our lifetimes we should expect to achieve at least one meaningful 1/10,000-probability event (because we likely play a 1/10,000 lottery of one type or another every day)
That's where the flaw of logic is, if you try a lot of 1/10,000 events enough times, you will achieve one some time, this is true, however, for each individual event, your odds are still 1/10,000, and you have no control which event you will be successful. You may score that date with the beautiful blonde, but your odds of scoring one date with any beautiful blonde is much bigger than 1/10,000 since the odds has been aggregated, just like the 1/10,000 of dying from a plane crash during a 20-year periods of weekly flights is already an aggregated odds, though much bigger than the original odds, but still small enough to be a factor of cause.
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