Well, first of all, you know you're not eligible for free upgrades on flights to/from MAN, right?

And I think there was a post somewhere on here where it came out that you were booked on a reservation with a non-elite. You will not be upgraded on those either, unless you separate the reservations.

Beyond that, I don't know. I don't recall whether you've given us enough information. Where did you end up on the upgrade standby list at the time of departure for each flight? Were there a lot of other upgrades listed on these flights? What fare classes are you buying?

I doubt it's the DEQMs, I don't think there is a significant difference in the elite ranks between last year and this year; the DEQMs likely just kept the number similar because so many (business) people were flying a lot less in 2009.

My personal experience is that I have a 100% upgrade success this year on CO, all on discount economy fares. I've gotten several upgrades at the 5-day mark, and I even got a companion upgrade once. So I would say that if anything, there are fewer elites this year than last, despite the DEQM promotions.