Originally Posted by
LuvAirFrance
"For those who avoid thinking by citing traffic fatalities. I calculated the deaths per passenger mile traveled in the USA; .000000015. That's 7 zeroes to the left of the decimal point. That's because cars in America rack up miles in the trillions. Everybody seems so impressed at the level of activity in the sky. But we have about 250-300 million cars in America. The majority do trips daily. Lots of trips and miles like you can't believe. Air travel is an exceptional thing, surface travel is the rule. 43 thousand fatalies are pretty exceptional when you multiply 365 days times hundreds of millions of miles every day."
These are average statistical odds which are meaningless. To arrive at those average statistical odds, many people will have greater odds and many will have lower odds. Some will win the reverse lottery and die in the process. Some will never suffer an accident their entire life.
Aircraft accidents are known as low probability, high consequence events. Pretty self-explanatory. Motor vehicle accidents are usually higher probability(than aircraft), low consequence events. Not always. On a foggy day, motor vehicle accidents can be high probability, high consequence events, too. Another consideration is the incidence of injury. Aircraft accidents have a higher mortality risk but motor vehicle accidents have a higher injury risk, injuries that can be as gruesome as war injuries which a person may live with the rest of their life.
Using average statistical odds of an event can create a false sense of security and misperception of the real risk. Something to think about.