Yes, this year has been more difficult for upgrades over the Atlantic. I've missed 2 out of about 8. In past years it had been better. Also, IAD to SFO has been almost impossible for me, because of the higher numbers of A320's I think.

But this is not only because of the (supposedly) higher number of 1K's this year due to DEQM (which I hope they don't do in 2010!), but fewer flights and fewer C seats with the new configurations.

Even given all that though - I would still go for it if you're close - it does have some nice benefits, and hopefully they'll be fewer competitors next year for upgrades.