I’d like to thank all of you for the interesting posts in this thread. Like many of you, I have an upcoming F flight (3/8 YYZ-LHR, return 22/8) and have been monitoring to see how lucky I’ll get to be on a New First flight (too much monitoring perhaps). So here goes my first post to this thread (I will try not to make them all this long).
Thanks to Motors for getting the mental wheels spinning on what the odds are of having NF on your route. Using some of the useful tools I’ve found on this board, I think I’ve gotten a littler closer calculation for those flying on Triple Sevens (I am an analyst after all).
Thanks to Swanhunter and the Seating Queries: First thread: :-:
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/briti...ies-first.html
From this (with details seat maps and tail numbers), I’ve gathered that there are a total of 32 777s with F (out of a fleet of 46 777s, the remaining 14 in 3 class configuration with no F I would surmise). However, since the first one to be rolled out was G-VIIU, that is the 14 seat configuration (one of 20 777s with 14 F seats), that rules out any flights on a 17 F seat 777 (3 of those) or a 13 F seat 777 (9 of those). MMB shows my 3/8 flight is a 14 F seat 777 (so I’m in the running at least for NF, seats 2E and 2F). Unfortunately for me, MMB is showing my return flight on 8/22 is one of the old 17 seaters (not that I mind the old F, I still prefer it to AA Flagship Suites).
SpeedbirdLHR indicated that G-VIIV may now be fitted with NF. That would make sense and according to ftdashboard’s marvelous tracking tool (
http://www.ftdashboard.net) ^^ you can see at a glance when one of the aircraft puts in a stop at CWL (potentially/hopefully for a refit with NF). G-VIIV was at CWL from 27/4 to 10/5 (2 weeks, long enough for a refit it would seem). That metal also is a 14 F seat config. Now, using the ftdashboard, one could extrapolate when another 777 makes a stop. G-VIIW stopped in on 18/5 and was still there on 27/5 on the ftdashboard. According to flight24.com (
http://data.flight24.com/airplanes/g-viiw/) G-VIIW returned to service on 1/6 (another 2 weeks out of service, and in sequence of tail number U, V, W). Could G-VIIX be next? According to flight24.com G-VIIX now appears to be at CWL.
So, with all this sleuthing (since apparently there’s no detailed official word from BA on the roll out other than over the next two years) there may be 4 777s with new F in service by mid-June, greatly increasing all of our odds of sitting in NF. I also noted that 2 of the 20 14 F seat 777s, G-VIIA/B fly from LGW (to BDA and BGA). That could actually reduce the pool to 18 777s if BA fits out the LHR 777s first.
So, for anyone showing a 14 F seat 777 on MMB here’s my calculated odds based on the increasing number of 777s fitted or soon to be fitted (based on 20 or 18 in the pool).
1 777 – Odds between 1 in 20 and 1 in 18 (5 to 5.56%)
2 777s – Odds between 1 in 10 and 1 in 9(10 to 11.11%)
3 777s – Odds between 3 in 20 and 1 in 6 (15 to 16.67)
4 777s – Odds between 2 in 10 and 2 in 9 (20 to 22.22%)
And with every new one added after that an increase of between 5 and 5.56% (so my chances could be up to between 35 and 38.89% by early August if 7 Triple 7s with NF are on line – I’m liking that).
If anyone could confirm G-VIIW has been fitted with NF and/or if G-VIIX is currently being fitted with NF, it would help solidify the odds and projections I’ve made or help me revise them).
If you’re on a 17 or 13 F seat 777, seems your odds are 0%, at least for the foreseeable future unless they start refitting these (which of course, would alter my other projections).
As for 747s, if what I’ve read holds true, the current plan is only the one 747 for now (G-CIVF) and there are 49 active 747s so your odds remain at 1 in 49 or 2.04% as Motors indicated. Slightly better than the 17 or 13 F seat 777s.
Of course if you’re Bill Nighy or Rachel Weisz, your odds are greatly improved.
YMMV
Cheers!