History may not be much of a help here; the FTers I've spoken too have noted that the NRT fares this year have been really high and the consolidators haven't been able to do much better. The other issue is that folks aren't seeing that much NC availability this year to NRT (although I did find one seat on ORD-NRT in September).

Based on the above, if $1,400 was the W fare and there was confirmed NC availability, I'd probably book it. My personal thought is that if you are going to go on a waitlist on a W fare, the sooner the better to increase your chances of clearing.

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