Originally Posted by
joejones
I beg to differ: SHA, HKG, PEK and SEL. They are all in that range, and the Chinese routes will probably get even busier once JAL is downsized and Japanese visa restrictions are further eased for Chinese nationals. The Japanese government is making huge efforts right now to get more Chinese tourists (and capital) into Japan.
Definately not HKG, how long and how often have you been on that route ?
NH has two flights a day just because UA stop flying NRT-HKG, not because it has good loads out if it, this market is totally saturated. The second flight is only use for connections for all the *A partners to and from the US. Many times this second flight using 763 even on holiday season only gets about 70% load. Most of other times is 50% or less especially the night time 911.
Moreover, even the regular 909/910 had downsized from 744/77W to 772.
The HND-NRT establish is mainly for tourist, not for business travelers. It is actually part chartered by tour operators.
Look at JL from its peak, they were using 3x 747 like 15 years ago (and those are the ones with larger Y sections too) and now left with just 1 744 and 1 767. It is not because JL is downsizing, it is the market doesn't have sufficient loads to support it. Even if JL further downsized, but keep in mind this market is is not just about NH and JL. There are nonstop CX HKG-CTS now, so tourist doesn't even need to rely on NH and JL, and then there is discount carrier UO.
There used to many Japanese live in HKG, going back and fourth for business, HKG used to have a huge Japanese market just about 15-20 years ago, but not anymore. Now is just basically left with tourist.
As for SEL, NH is always a small player, it can never compete with KE and OZ. KE and OZ had been using widebodies for this route for years with many flights a day, and NH is still using 1 class 320.