I am a UPS shipper for my business and have run into this situation a few times.
If the driver leaves the package without someone signing for it, they are, in some way, held responsible for it by UPS. If they have too many claims against them, then they may have to pay for it, or be fired.
For many residential deliveries, the UPS drivers are a bit lazy and just leave stuff there. Find out the local address of your UPS depot, and call up and complain to the supervisor. Find out the drivers name or employee ID.
Call up the national UPS number (800-PICKUPS begin_of_the_skype_highlighting..............800-PICKUPS......end_of_the_skype_highlighting). Complain that your driver, XXXXXX, dropped off a package with no signature, and that it was either misdelivered or stolen. Complaints made to the headquarters this way are taken very seriously, and will certainly get the attention of your local supervisor. Plus it counts against the driver who misdelivered, or left it without a signature.
I can't tell you how many times that I've had a customer call me up and find that the package was at a neighbors, or left on the back porch where they never look.
The shipper should have insured it. I know for US shipped packages, UPS automatically includes $100 of insurance. Extra insurance usually costs about 45 cents to 70 cents per $100 of value.
If the shipper didn't insure it, then I still say they're on the hook for it.
Of the 3 lost/stolen packages I've had in 15 years, I suspect one or two of just reporting it stolen after it was delivered and left unattended. The package was insured, so I got my money.