Hi Sahil, I have been flying US-India for 25+ years and still cannot guess with any accuracy which airline is going to offer the cheapest fare just once a few months from now, let alone for several years in a row.

The best you can do is join a program which is a member of an alliance. One of the Star Alliance (*A) airlines should serve you well. Then fly a *A carrier each time - see staralliance.com for a list - whenever possible and credit the miles to your primary program.

Sometimes it will happen that the cheapest fare is not from star alliance: the cheapest *A fare could be $1000, but Etihad might be offering $800. In this case you'll have to choose between benefits of program loyalty and saving money. All of us have to make such calls every now and then. However, absent huge savings, I see no reason to prefer a stand-alone airline like Etihad or Jet.

Good luck. Let us know what you decide.