Those #s may be correct for flights to/from DFW and ORD, but I think they're high for most flights. I often change flights at the last minute when I'm running early or late, and have to stand-by for upgrades. It's pretty rare that I'm competing with more than one other EXP, and often I'm the only one and go straight to the top of the list. Another exception, though, is transcon flights, where there are literally plane-loads of elites and lots of EXPs.