At least for me, I fly out of MSP, for last 3 years I missed 4 upgrades and was routinely upgraded 5 days out. Last year missed 1 upgrade out of 128 domestic segments. This year as DM the routine is upgrade at the gate even though routinely on m or b fares. If your going to promise a five day window you better deliver, oh and I have the reserve card as well, not many people ahead of me on the UG list.