Originally Posted by
eponymous_coward
AS gets most of that today. Look at an AS flight sometime on a flight board at LAX. You'll see it as AS XXX, AA XXXX, QF XXXX, BA XXXX, KL XXXX, DL XXXX, AF XXXX, KE XXXX. AS codeshares very evenly between ST and OW, much to their mutual benefit.
One of the problems with AS picking an alliance might be losing the money from codeshares with the other alliance (if those lapse) - and that's a MUCH more significant downside than MVPGs getting lounge access and RTW awards. AS's route network works in a world where a huge percentage of it is exposed to WN in no small part because they derive lots of codeshare revenue. Losing portions of it via takeover or by joining an alliance would be a serious problem
Definitely true, and these are definitely good reasons why AS should becareful of choosing an alliance instead of remaining independent.
Many of the restrictive factors of joining an alliance are already noted by many posters here. While they do offer some pros from a marketing and elite benefit standpoint, they also have many cons as you mentioned, and have been a tough decision that has been made for every carrier that committed themselves to an alliance.
A great example is Japan Airlines. Before joining oneworld, they took an independent stance similar to AS; partnering with both AA and QF (OW) on oneside, while partnering with AF/KLM and AZ (ST) on the other. JL was able to benefit the both of best worlds at this time where JL received passengers from both alliances through code-shares, while JL frequent flyer were able to earn and redeem their miles from one to another.
However, by committing themselves to oneworld, JL began to face some of the pressures of being an alliance member. Costs of updating their IT systems to coordinate with oneworld carriers. Added costs of reciprocal lounge access to oneworld elite flyers. Pressures from BA and others to code-share over Skyteam carriers like AF/KLM and AZ.
Long-term wise, yes these strategies are benefitial for JL and JL does have an important role in longterm OW strategy. But unfortunately it was a burden for JL in the short term, especially when their financial state wasn't as healthy to begin with. And since they've already committed to oneworld, switching alliances to ST would incur added expenses, so they are pretty much stuck with oneworld.
So it all comes down to: what is AS' long term strategy?
If they remain an independent two-class service legacy carrier with international destinations to Canada and Mexico, how will they ride out the pressures to join an alliance when it seems like everybody left and right are joining them? But if not, will they go to a LCC oriented model, facing pressures by competing with Virgin America, JetBlue, and WN? Or will it be something more different and work out the best deal out of both parties?
As a relatively frequent AS flyer based out of LAX, there's a part of me where I'd like to see more increased reciprocal benefits between OW, ST and AS. And then there's a part of me where I like AS remaining to be one of the few independent carriers these days which doesn't have to deal with all the cr@p and hassles of being committed to a particular alliance. Yet, there's also a part of me where I'd like to see more lucrative destinations for AS out of the west coast (particularly SLC and more destinations to Canada).