I am an AA EXP in the middle of a Oneworld award right now.

My ticket back to the USA is on the following route:

BA (operated by Comair) CPT-JNB in business
BA JNB-LHR in first
AA LHR-ORD in first

I know they had a policy last time, but I am concerned there will be no way out of CPT or JNB that meets their free change policy.

The only other OW options of out JNB seem to be IB to MAD or CX to HKG and in fact IB does not fly Friday, Saturday or Sunday this time of year and of course HKG is way out the way.

I can hold some alternate seats on other carriers (LH/UA and QR).

Will AA or BA endorse these award seats over if they strike and cancel my JNB-LHR flight?

If I have to buy a ticket out of S. Africa, I found a one-way on QR from CPT back to IAD for about $2900 while all the other European carriers (and SA) wanted close to $6000.

Any suggestions?