Here are the guidelines, but to know from experience your chances, it helps to know where you are departing from and going to and what days.

If you are coming out of IAH, CLE, or EWR on a Monday, I would think the chances of you getting a BF bump aren't very good, but it's hard to make any assumption without knowing the day and where you are coming and going to.

Priority for First Class/Business Class Elite upgrades is determined by:

Full Fare Economy Y Allows all Elite members to upgrade at the time of ticketing when a seat is available on eligible flights operated by Continental and Continental Micronesia

Discount Full Fare Economy B and Platinum Elite Members in M Allows all Elite members to upgrade at the time of ticketing, subject to capacity controls, on eligible flights operated by Continental and Continental Micronesia

Elite level: Members are prioritized according to their Elite level — Platinum, Gold and then Silver.

Restricted fare class: Upgrade priority within Elite level will be based on fare class purchased. The fare class structure in priority order is as follows: M, H, K, Q, U, V, G, W, E, S, T, N and L.

Booking date/time: All else being equal, the sooner Elite members book their flight, the better their upgrade chances.

Check in time: If your upgrade is processed from the standby upgrade list at the airport, check in time will be used in place of booking date/time.

Upgrades are processed nightly and confirmed in priority order using the following schedule:

Full Fare Economy Y, Discount Full Fare Economy B and Platinum Elite Members in M: — Beginning 5 calendar days before departure if an upgrade was not confirmed any time after ticketing

Platinum Elite members on non-Y fare classes — Beginning 5 calendar days before departure

Gold Elite members on non-Y fare classes — Beginning 3 calendar days before departure

Silver Elite members on non-Y fare classes — Beginning 1 calendar day before departure