I can tell you that I have visited the Bahamas in February and, while the air temperature can be warm, both the pool and the ocean water was COLD. No one was in our pool hotel for the entire 5 days we were there because it was too cold.
We've now opted to take our Feb beach vacations to destinations that are further south. Even Grand Cayman was much warmer in Feb than the Bahamas. We stick with anything south of Miami.
Disney should not be ridiculously crowded in March.
Not trying to tell you not to go to the Bahamas (personally, if I'd already made the plans and would be out any money, I'd stay with what I have and plan a Fla trip for another time)...but if you and the kids were planning on swimming or snorkeling as a big part of your vacation, you might be disappointed in March.
Have fun whatever you choose.