My wife, daughter, and I will be flying IAD-SAN over Thanksgiving weekend. Prices for nonstops are ~$580. I just booked three saver award tickets, knowing that as a 1K I have flexibility to change/cancel.

I'm hoping that the price for the flight would drop at some point in the next few months -- if that happens I'd turn my own ticket into a paid one (having made 1k by <1,000 miles last year, I'm keen on getting EQMs when possible).

My question is whether there's any realistic chance that a short term price drop will happen. I assume that it's highly unlikely because the UA knows they can sell these flights out, often at a very high price at the last minute. Is this assumption correct?