Something I should have known but really didn't think of and might be of help to others. I had given an EVIP to a friend (no status) to use for a TATL flight. She had crappy seats in coach so she gave me her AA# so I could monitor both the upgrade and the seat availability. The EVIPs never cleared and about 6 hours out from departure the premium seats in coach and also in business class started becoming available. I thought this was good news until later when the domestic connecting flight was delayed and everyone was being rebooked. It then dawned on me that she was down on the list to be notified and the open seats were the elites already moved to different flights.

Lesson learned - open seats aren't always a good sign.