I have been keeping my eye on this as I restarted my red-eye flights again (e.g. last friday there were only 2 seats left and I was upgraded at the very last minute at SJC airport AA club)

(route = SJC-LAX-ORD-IND)

and from what I found it has seriously helped getting upgraded.

Though that "awesome" like-new remote terminal in LAX, coupled with the sweet and comfy shuttle bus makes up for the upgrade ...

(side note ... the new 737-800 FC seats are awesome ....)

So I can agree with the other posts ... originating (unless from a tier 2 city [like IND] .... get slammed ... connections get bumped faster ....

+-ADT