Originally Posted by
kiwiandrew
I think 'monopolistic' might be a slight exaggeration - if this plays out as it seems to then I think we would see the following in the US-Japan market
Skyteam - Heavyweight
Oneworld - Lightweight
Star - counterweight
While there is little doubt that a DL/JL combo would start with the lions share of the market I think that CO/NH/UA would prevent a monopolistic situation in the market . ( Though , of course , that would not be much consolation to OW frequent flyers )
And when AA scales back flights, Delta/JAL will control over 70% of US-Japan traffic (NRT will become a fortress hub). It isn't about counterweights, it's about a Delta/JAL revenue sharing/operations consolidation that will reduce competition. Repeat after me, less competition is bad for consumers; less competition is bad for consumers. The US DOJ doesn’t care about JAL's financial situation; it is legally bound by US antitrust law. UA and AA will fight ATI for Delta/JAL to the bitter end. If BA/AA has not been able to get ATI even with open skies to the UK I just don't see how it gets granted in this case. And with the new Japanese government doing everything it can lately to irritate the Obama administration, I am guessing that placating the Japanese transportation minister will not be high on the DOT's & DOJ's list of things to do. The DOJ/DOT will make Delta/JAL give up a lot slots and gates, we will see if the cost will be worth it for them.
Bankruptcy/reorganization is going to be best thing that could happen to JAL, the problem is that it will be a Japanese political excercise instead of a business decision.