I'd like to discuss status retention in this post as it relates to existing Skywards elites.

As far as I am concerned, I have no problem with EK changing the program to maximize revenue and to reward the premium end of the scale. In fact, I think it had no choice. However, IMHO the new changes don't do enough and before many of the higher end start to look elsewhere, EK needs to be aware of what many of its hardcore premium travelers are thinking.

The web affords us real time interaction - and in a recent Business Traveller interview, Brian La Belle, the SVP for Skywards admitted that he was somewhat shocked by the initial response to the planned changes for 2010. My question is "why?". Forums such as FT offer a much more valuable set of insights into what real customers are thinking and are far more beneficial and more accurate predictors than focus groups.

Now, I am the first to admit that the members of FT are in the over-educated minority in terms of "being in the know" with regards to their FFP. Many premium travelers perhaps wont even know or may not care.

However, if you believe what you read in the industry press, it will be 2-years before the airline industry recovers and premium loads return to what they once were (if at all). Anecdotally (from my own EK experience), the loads in J were rarely full ex MEL-SIN, they were sometimes full in J on the return (due to operational issues like full Y cabins etc) and rarely did I ever see more than 1-2 pax in F either way).

Below is my total EK travel for the past 12-months. And I will say right up front that I am not the type of traveller that the revamped Skywards is trying to reward (or perhaps even attract). In fact, I would think I would be in the minority due to the fact that all my travel is in Y. All frequent flier programs have some people who always qualify the hard way. I'm in that group.

Despite that, I am a strong EK brand advocate. And I will continue to fly them because of the total experience they provide. I stopped flying QF long-haul years ago, despite my 14,000+ tier credits and lifetime Gold status. I have no allegiance to them just because I am an Aussie and they are our national flag carrier.

True, I may have been romanced by EK's low fares initially, and their onboard amenities (i.e. ICE, p.c. power in Y) but as reality sets in and EK's fares level out, I would choose EK over QF any day. I've received far more comp upgrades on EK in less than 12-months flying than I have on Qantas since 1994. And you tend to remember those things.

In a nutshell, EK's new program rules will require me to fly 14 round-trips in 2010 between MEL-SIN in Y (Saver) to retain Gold status. Whereas I used to earn 3748 tier miles, I will now earn 1750 for the same flight.

In 2009, I flew 14.5 round-trips - MEL-SIN with an average ticket price of A$650, total spend of just under A$10K. Obviously, all travel in Y. Took advantage of the A$400 MEL-SIN special on multiple occasions, as well as ticketed out of Singapore when prices were cheaper than booking via the Australian website. Often had 2-3 tickets running at one time. Only paid change fees on a few occasions. Got to know the local SIN EK staff, who were always extremely helpful.

In terms of "overall experience", couldn't be happier. As soon as I qualified for Gold, was able to access the lounges. The MEL lounge, IMHO is better than the SIN lounge. Was also able to check in at the J/F counters, which made life easier and bags were tagged priority. Most of the time, was able to secure my preferred exit row seat in Y ex MEL and on 3-4 occasions, was sent the upgrade email - which started at A$150 (from MEL-SIN) and ended up creeping to A$175 (still a good deal). I always paid for the upgrades.

Received no comp upgrades ex MEL but probably received 4 comps ex-SIN. I also redeemed 6 x 30,000 mile upgrades during 2009 (all for upgrades between SIN-MEL). With all the promotions during the year, online booking bonuses etc, total mileage accrual was approx. 200K. No credit card linked to Skywards. I personally feel that the upgrade reward fee of 30,000 miles between MEL-SIN is a bit steep, but thats for another time.

As stated, under the old scheme, I was awarded 3748 tier miles for each sector, which means I ended 2009 with 108,692 tier miles.
I began flying Emirates in April 2009, and qualified Gold in Aug 2009. My current Gold card reflects status is good thru to end Feb 2011

The new website reflects the following

Congratulations. You have achieved the required tier miles to renew your Gold status next year. Your new card will be sent to you after your review date.

As I understand it, my renewal date for Gold will be Aug 2010. Given that I have already earned the required number of tier miles, my status should be confirmed thru to Oct 2012 (12-months + 2), so I have to essentially start flying with EK post Aug 2010 if I want to maintain status. Retention rules are slightly different to that of moving from Blue to Silver or from Silver to Gold, in the sense that there is no rolling 12-month period (just an annual review date).

I can choose to do the 14 round-trips in Y (saver) or I could decide to 6 round-trips in J (Interestingly, the price works out to be nearly identical based on a Y fare of SGD$1299 versus SGD$3038 for J). Prices are constantly changing.

I found the new website a little confusing because the site wouldn't render properly using Firefox. I switched to Safari and while still a little jumbled, I managed to understand the table showing how many tier and Skywards miles you would earn point to point.

The point I am trying to make with my lengthy post (apologies) is that a 3-tiered system is too limited. I think the fairest system is to reward each and every member on base miles. Like they have done, fare and status bonuses should apply.

There then needs to be a program to acknowledge EK's top tier (granted these premium ranks have subsided somewhat) but I was still impressed by the amount of hardcore EK flyers that I would often meet in J and who flew premium cabin constantly).

While I know Tim Clark, el Presidente of EK would most likely hate his airline to be compared to that of AA/UA, the fact remains that both these 2 carriers know a thing or two about running a FFP. One airline started the whole FF industry (AA back in 1981) and UA has in excess of 54 million members in its Mileage Plus. Between AA/UA, there are a combined 100 million members. The data insights they would have would be astonishing.

Before some of the FT cynics cry foul and post feverishly away that I am bias, due to my status on UA, I will admit to being somewhat influenced by how MP operates. But I've also had 10+ years experience with them - and if you want to see heated discussion, excruciating over-analysis on every minute detail of an airline program, head on over to the Mileage Plus forum to witness first hand for yourself. Passionate would be an understatement.

I also feel that there is no fairer program than MP and one that caters to most of its members.

On the other hand, AA and UA would probably love a young fleet like EK's, would like an airline where strikes are banned, where labour is cheap, and where they can afford to spend $73 million on lounges which truly are standard setting and the onboard amenities such as showers in first (on the A380), an IFE with the offering of ICE and lie flat seats are more the norm than the exception.

EK has to move to a program like GS (Global Services) or equivalent. I also think that thresholds of 25K and 50K miles is too restrictive. There should be a 100K level and while they're at it, the introduction of Systemwide upgrades would be a good thing (and one that might pacify the anger at the newly revised award levels)

I originally thought that EK might have been able to get away with not having a Platinum level - as these new changes will probably see a slight realignment in the demographics and make-up of the membership tiers. But on reflection, probably not.

All I know is if that I flew in excess of 100K tier miles in J/F on Emirates and was treated in the same manner as someone who flew 50K tier miles all in discount Y, I would be pissed. The disparity is simply too great.

Without stating the obvious, there are a lot of wealthy people out of the middle east and Asia. SQ handles this by way of its Solitaire PPS club. QF by way of its Chairmans Lounge. UA by Global Services. And AA with its Concierge Key Program.

Granted, each of the elite programs above have different entry criteria. Some are by actual revenue (i.e. PPS) and some are by invitation only (i.e. UA GS, QF CL) and based on what spend you can "influence" rather than your own personal exertion. But they are all designed to cater (or pander) to the needs of their high-end elites and VIP's.

In my mind, some of the smart 500+ people who currently work for Skywards need to be focused on accelerating deployment of a fourth tier. A simple realignment of Silver and Gold qualification criteria will just not cut it.

The new changes are too confusing and redemption levels overly excessive.

Ok, I'm done. Rant over.