Originally Posted by
nickyboy
Although I have only seen the capital investment and fare numbers (so nothing on maintenance, running costs etc) I suspect you are absolutely right that the line will not make a profit as a stand a lone investment
However, like many countries in the world, the extension of faster, reliable transportation links (and the trains can presumably move volumes of people more easily that air) promotes wider economic development which is difficult to quantify. On top of that, there is also the general economic stimulus generated by the initial capital investment in the project
Having said that, the pricing seems topside - the basic Y class Wuhan-Guangzhou is RMB1030 but significant discounts are often available (for next week there are plenty of tickets at RMB380 all in). So there isn't a meaningful pricing advantage to use the service and it will often be more expensive than flying. Flying is faster but by the time you've messed around getting to/from the airports it is probably quite close so why bother with the train? Sure, I might try it once for the experience but I've been on plenty of Chinese bullet trains (260km/hr?) and I suspect this will not be so different
nickyboy
There are plenty of situations where a train journey may make more sense. For instance, there are times of the year in many parts of China when weather conditions mean that air service is subject to delays and cancellations...and real-time info from the domestic carrier is tough to come by. The trains are more reliable, even the traditional non-bullet services. Another situation: Sometimes one's personal scheduling doesn't allow for the better part of daylight hours wasted in flights + security hassles + getting to/from airports, and an overnight train journey makes more sense and a better value as long as you are not overly tall and can't fit in the sleeper. Another situation: you need to travel with physical "stuff" that exceeds airline carryon allowances but due to amount, nature and/or valuation, you prefer to keep with you and not hand over to airlines' checked baggage. Solution = train. Another situation: you just want more space to spread out and wander when travelling, which is not doable on a flight. Another situation: you're a leisure traveller and want some time to practice your Chinese and trade stories with the locals. (Don't laugh, I know some expats who really benched up their language prowess by buying cheap hard seat and hard sleeper tickets to anywhere; on each successive trip they got more and more fluent.
)
It's good to have multiple options. As for all the existing and this new bullet train, I believe all these are seats only without sleeper cars, and the designation is "1st Class" or "2nd Class" which is a departure from the traditional Chinese train berth nomenclature. The vast majority of average Chinese will be unable to afford this train in the foreseeable future, but this route/corridor probably does have enough business and upper class leisure travellers to not run empty. In my experience in China, I recall very few times I saw ANY form of transportation running anywhere close to empty. Mostly everything runs fairly full to completely full.
Of course as an economic standalone project, this bullet train doesn't make sense in the short term. Who knows about the long term? Subsidizing for the sake of prestige, follow-on economic benefit, or whatever reason you subscribe to is obviously not a problem for the Chinese government. It certainly makes a lot more sense than the Shanghai Maglev, which was strictly an ego-driven exercise in silliness.