Originally Posted by
fone
Another data point here that I would think is the opposite... I have a 2P friend cleared a SFO - NRT flight to NC. He had waitlisted for quite sometime, so if the FIFO system is in place, then it seems he cleared with just waiting. I'm not sure how SFO - NRT compares to the SFO - HKG (which is notoriously hard to clear), I'm just assuming the common knowledge that SFO is very elite heavy and I'd think it is safe to assume that there is always someone with a higher status (1P, 1K, GS) than him in the waitlist (if IM releases NC seats very slowly).
Plenty of assumptions here...
I don't think it is safe assumption to assume there are always elites on the waitlist. Only specific, relatively high fare classes qualify for upgrades. There could be plenty of elites that don't meet the upgrade requirements. I've met plenty of 1Ks that seem annoyed that many of the flights they book (lowest fare available) aren't eligible for SWUs. I think this will change once miles+copay are available for all fares. Of course, this will make it VERY hard for lower level elites to upgrade unless they can confirm in advance or travel on low-elite travel days. Booking 9 months in advance has no advantage if NC space doesn't open until a week before the flight and N-number of people had the opportunity to jump ahead of you.